Housing Market Update: Shifting Toward Balance Amid Economic Uncertainty

Economic uncertainty, particularly related to tariff threats, is weighing on consumer confidence and impacting the housing market as we enter spring. March data reveals a significant shift in market dynamics, with sales declining by 19% year-over-year while new listings surge.

Market Overview

The housing market is transitioning toward more balanced conditions after four consecutive years favoring sellers. March sales totaled 2,159 units across all property types, with steeper declines in higher-density segments. Despite this pullback, sales remain stronger than levels seen during the challenging economic period of 2015-2020.

"It is not a surprise to see a pullback in sales given the uncertainty," notes Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. "Nonetheless, easing demand has been met with gains in new listings and rising inventories, helping our market shift back toward balanced conditions."

Supply and Inventory Gains

March saw over 4,000 new listings enter the market, pushing the sales-to-new-listing ratio down to 54% and supporting inventory growth. Total residential inventory reached 5,154 units, with months of supply increasing to 2.4 months. While this represents a significant change from last year's tight conditions, the market varies considerably by location, price point, and property type.

Price Trends

The improving supply has relieved pressure on home prices after steep gains over the previous four years. March's unadjusted residential benchmark price held steady at $592,500, relatively unchanged from both the previous month and March 2024. Detached and semi-detached homes continue to maintain price levels at or near peak values, while apartment and row-style properties remain slightly below last year's peaks.

Property Type Performance

Detached Homes

Sales: 1,035 units (down 10% year-over-year)
Benchmark price: $769,800 (up over 4% from last year)
Supply: Just over 2 months (tighter for homes under $700,000)
Notable: City Centre saw the largest price gains

Semi-Detached

First quarter sales down 11% year-over-year
Benchmark price: $691,900 (up over 5% from last year)
Supply: 2.2 months (highest since late 2022)
Notable: Largest gains in City Centre and West districts

Row Homes

New listings: 697 units
Sales: 400 units
Benchmark price: $454,000 (up 2% year-over-year, but 4% below peak)
Notable: Significant inventory gains in North East, North, and South East districts

Condominiums

Largest year-over-year sales decline among all property types
Benchmark price: $336,100 (up nearly 3% year-over-year)
Supply: Just over 3 months
Notable: Prices remain below August peak, with largest declines in North and North East areas

Regional Markets

Airdrie

March sales: 160 units
First quarter: 395 units (down 11% year-over-year)
Detached benchmark price: $651,300 (up over 2% from last year)

Cochrane

Sales: Consistent with last year
Detached benchmark price: $686,800 (new record high, up over 5% year-over-year)

Okotoks

First quarter sales: 129 units (down from 155 last year)
Detached benchmark price: $715,500 (new record high, up over 5% year-over-year)

Market Outlook

While economic uncertainty continues to influence buying decisions, the shift toward more balanced market conditions offers potential relief for buyers after years of tight supply and escalating prices. However, market conditions remain highly variable based on location and price point, with lower-priced detached homes still experiencing tight supply conditions.

As we move further into spring, this rebalancing may create more opportunities for buyers while still supporting modest price growth in most segments, particularly for detached and semi-detached properties in desirable areas.

Your home is one of your biggest assets. If you're curious about what it's worth, I’d be happy to provide a free, no-obligation home analysis tailored to your property and neighborhood.

📞 Contact Kelly Kernick at 403-875-7629  Or request your home evaluation here